Selection boss lifts lid on new year fund searches
From evergreen private credit to the ‘picks and shovels’ of AI, Banco Carregosa’s chief fund picker Tiago Gaspar tells Selector the funds he's looking for.
Ahead of the Christmas break, Banco Carregosa’s selection boss Tiago Gaspar (pictured) offered Citywire Selector a sneak peek at his fund wish list – just before it was dispatched to the North Pole.
The firm’s three-strong selection team operates across execution, custody and advisory business lines. When Citywire spoke to Gaspar, he – alongside chief investment officer Mario Carvalho Fernandes and investment director Filipe Silva – was in the process of tweaking their 200-strong buylist for the year ahead.
Amid a flurry of AI bubble forecasts and the ritualistic yearly consultation of asset managers’ crystal balls, Gaspar outlined which themes are moving to the top of that list across both public and private markets.
Big names, not brave new worlds, in private credit
Alternatives – private credit in particular – were a defining theme for the Portuguese bank throughout 2025, and Gaspar sees no reason to ease off. The growing enthusiasm though, he stressed, has less to do with headline returns and more with structure.
The team has become ‘more interested right now in terms of private credit’, especially through evergreen vehicles. These, Gaspar argued, are ‘more suited to private credit than private equity’, largely because loan maturities themselves can generate liquidity.
Even if capital is not actively recycled, he pointed out: ‘If the manager has a well spread maturity wall, they will have the liquidity to pass on to clients.’
That stands in contrast to the stress fractures exposed in parts of private real estate a few years ago, when redemption pressures collided with long-dated assets. ‘If we have very long-term assets, even with this kind of evergreen structure, it’s possible to have some stresses,’ he said.
But structure is only half the story. Gaspar is equally cautious about the rapid expansion of the private credit universe itself. With a wave of new managers launching first or second funds – often straight into evergreen formats – his team has chosen not to be early adopters.
‘We are not invested in them, because we feel the arena has yet to be tested by economic or market stress.’
Instead, Banco Carregosa continues to back established European houses with reputations to defend. ‘They have more reputation risk… that’s the way we’ve been playing this.’
Gaspar also described a deliberate balance between plain-vanilla direct lending and more specialised strategies. Alongside core lending exposure, portfolios also include funds focused on capital solutions, distressed debt and bridge financing.
The rationale is straightforward: ‘We always know that there is a recession coming. We don’t know when… but we know that in times of great market dislocation, you want to be partnering with those fund houses that are very professional in what they do.’
Opting out of the AI pure play
In public markets, technology remains firmly on the radar – but Gaspar is wary of narrow or brittle exposure. Rather than chasing pure artificial intelligence strategies, he prefers what he dubbed a ‘picks and shovels’ approach.
Drawing a parallel with the 19th-century US Gold Rush, his focus is on the companies supplying the infrastructure behind the AI boom. ‘They earn from day one; when a company says, "I want to build a new AI data centre”, they’re there to provide the materials.’
The appeal is not just durability of revenues, but peace of mind. This approach, he argued, allows exposure to long-term technological investment without confronting the most uncomfortable question of all – timing the exit.
‘If I just focused on AI, I would have to answer the question: "When is the time to get out?”’ he said. ‘I don’t want to put myself in that fragile situation.’
Healthcare, with a scientific edge
Healthcare is another area under close watch. Gaspar acknowledged the sector has been ‘quite difficult’ over the past year but pointed to specialist biotech funds with long track records and high active share as examples where deep expertise can make a difference.
Biotechnology, he said, is a rare corner of markets where ‘the competitive advantage is scientific knowledge’. He also highlighted how artificial intelligence is increasingly being deployed to accelerate drug discovery and development.
While more volatile, he explained that such strategies are key examples of the kind of differentiated active management that appeals to his team.
Hunting alpha in emerging markets
Emerging markets complete the picture. Gaspar frames the opportunity through currency cycles, noting that EM assets historically perform best when the US dollar weakens.
He links this dynamic to wider macro pressures, including high global debt levels and the political incentives to let inflation erode real liabilities over time.
But broad index exposure does not appeal. Instead, his focus is on highly selective active managers willing to look beyond the largest BRIC markets. The real opportunity, he told Selector, lies in ‘those satellite countries that gravitate near the big emerging market countries’, where inefficiency and limited investor attention can create fertile ground for alpha.
‘The reason that I’m speaking about emerging markets,’ he said, ‘is because when your investors don’t have much of an appetite, when the market is inefficient and when you have dedicated active management, you can extract very interesting alpha on top of the beta.’