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May 2024

Greater amounts

Most Subscribed

The signs are compatible with a soft-landing scenario


If in 2023 the most anticipated and consensual recession of the US economy ever did not materialize, in 2024, the consensus points to a “No-Landing” or “Soft-Landing” scenario. However, the signs of a slowdown in the economy that did not occur (surprisingly!) in 2023 are now beginning to emerge, albeit gradually and episodically. The signs are still more compatible with a soft landing scenario than an abrupt fall in growth, not least because economies such as Europe and China are advancing asynchronously, but it is important to observe the evolution of the indicators that are gradually changing direction.


As far as inflation is concerned, the general view tends to point to a benign scenario, although not all the indicators and all the months point in the direction of disinflation.


In a scenario of a moderate economic slowdown and disinflation, balanced allocation portfolios should continue to perform well, which could be maintained if the slowdown is more pronounced than the market consensus now anticipates, with an expected contribution from the bond component in this more recessive scenario.


The prospect of a new wave of inflation remains the most damaging scenario for the performance of these portfolios. However, it has gradually been removed from the more realistic scenarios.

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The information contained herein identifies the most subscribed investment funds, by amount and quantity, in the reference period by Banco Carregosa clients, not considering anypersonal element of a specific potential investor. No elements were considered to assess thesuitability of any investment or disinvestment to a specific person, therefore it should notconstitute an investment recommendation. Potential investors are responsible for theirinvestment decisions, and should carefully consider their investment objectives, financialsituation, tolerance and capacity to bear the risk of investing in the financial instruments inquestion. 

Potential investors should make their own investment decisions andobtain professional clarification and advice on the characteristics and risks of the servicesand financial instruments in question, appropriate to their level of knowledge and experience,in particular, of price changes and possible loss of capital. Any subscription or redemptionorders are the sole responsibility of the potential investor, and before any investment decisionis made potential investors must acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions of thedocuments specific to each Fund, which are available for consultation herein, including the"Prospectus" and the "Key Information Document" (KID).

Management Companies may share with Banco Carregosa, as distributor, aportion of the Management and/or Distribution Fees charged by the fund, as well as offer othernon-monetary benefits. Non-monetary benefits are understood to be access to research andinvestment recommendation documents and access for Banco Carregosa employees to conferences andtraining organised by the Management Companies. In any case, the receipt of these fees does notcompromise the independence of Banco Carregosa.

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