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June 2026 will be remembered by markets as a period of extreme contrasts — and retail client activity on the platforms mirrored, with remarkable fidelity, that tension between greed and prudence. The quarter now drawing to a close was the best for the S&P 500 since 2020, with a gain of close to 14%, and the most exuberant in five years for the Nasdaq 100, which advanced 25%. Yet the same month saw more than 5 trillion dollars in market capitalisation wiped from the "Magnificent 7" relative to their highs, the worst quarter for gold since 2013, Bitcoin's fall below 60,000 dollars and the yen at a 40-year low. In this environment of shifting tectonic plates, the ten largest allocations in the retail segment tell a coherent story: that of investors who have not abandoned risk, but who have begun to dig trenches.

At the heart of client preferences remain the great building blocks of wealth accumulation — the Vanguard S&P 500, the iShares MSCI World and the Vanguard FTSE All-World. This trio, which concentrates the core exposure of portfolios, benefited fully from the rally that carried Wall Street to close the half-year at record highs, underpinned by technology and the artificial intelligence narrative. The choice of these global, diversified vehicles reveals a retail investor more mature than the stereotype suggests: rather than individually chasing the fashionable names, most opted to capture the upside through broad instruments, mitigating idiosyncratic risk in a market whose concentration is reaching historic levels — it is worth recalling that the entirety of the S&P 500's gains since January is explained by just two sectors, artificial intelligence and energy.

This structural prudence is no accident. June brought some conspicuous warnings: Citigroup flagged crowded positioning in the Nasdaq, implied correlation between stocks fell to a two-year low — a sign of an index held hostage by a handful of mega-caps — and the ratio of market capitalisation to US GDP reached 239%, well above the peak of the "dot-com" bubble. Those who wished to remain invested — and the flows suggest they did so with conviction — preferred to do so with some safeguard of diversification.

The second layer of the narrative is more subtle and perhaps more revealing. The prominent presence of the Schwab US Dividend Equity and the VanEck Morningstar Developed Markets Dividend Leaders documents the rotation that ran through the entire month: out of growth and cyclical stocks and into value and defensives. Session after session, the trading-desk commentary recorded the same pattern — profit-taking in semiconductors and data centres, with capital seeking refuge in consumer staples, healthcare and companies that pay a regular income. The Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 at times clearly outperformed the technology indices, in a broadening of the base that many strategists consider healthy.

The Xtrackers MSCI World Financials fits the same logic, but with an additional argument: in a world where the Fed, now led by Kevin Warsh, has adopted a markedly restrictive tone — with half its members open to rate hikes still this year and the market pricing in around 40 basis points of tightening — banks emerge as rare beneficiaries of higher rates for longer. In Europe, where the ECB raised rates in June and does not rule out further moves, the banking sector led the EuroStoxx 600's weekly gains. Clients, in favouring this ETF, have positioned themselves on the right side of the monetary cycle.

Not everything was restraint. The Defiance Quantum, fifth in the ranking, testifies to the persistent appetite for frontier themes. Investment in quantum computing reached record highs in 2025, with 3.9 billion dollars raised, Quantinuum was valued at 10 billion dollars, and China itself elevated the sector to a national strategic priority, above AI and semiconductors. For investors who witnessed the violent correction in the AI complex — with Microsoft and Meta losing more than 30% from their highs — quantum represents the next wave, still at a stage embryonic enough not to carry the demanding premiums that penalised the hyperscalers. It is a speculative bet, no doubt, but rational in its logic of anticipation.

The top of the list — and its tail — nonetheless holds the most fascinating reading. The first place of the iShares Gold Producers, in a month when gold posted its worst quarterly performance since 2013, with a fall of 13% and a drawdown close to -27% from its highs, can only be interpreted in two complementary ways. On the one hand, classic contrarian buying: with the metal validating support in the 4,000-dollar zone after evident capitulation, and with Bank of America highlighting that the miners reflect an implied price almost 19% below spot, the value investor finds here a rare asymmetry. On the other, structural protection: central banks remain record buyers, and in a world of US deficits at 6% of GDP and PCE inflation at 4.1%, insurance against monetary debasement retains demand, even — or especially — when it is on sale.

Analogous reasoning underpins the ninth position of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury. With the 10-year yield at 4.5% and the 30-year brushing 5%, long-dated bonds offer the highest relative return versus the S&P 500's earnings yield since 2003. Clients accumulating duration (against high P/Es) are betting that the Fed's tightening, by cooling the economy, will ultimately reward generously those who locked in these rates — a conviction reinforced by the IMF's warning that the debt associated with AI now constitutes the single greatest risk to financial stability, a scenario in which sovereign debt would function as a safe haven.

Finally, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy closes the list at a moment when the crypto market has lost 54% of its value in eight months and the full entry into force of the MiCA regime may have left 90% of European operators without a licence. The presence of this ETF in the top 10 — even in tenth place — shows that a fringe of the retail segment continues to buy the dips, treating the 58,000-60,000-dollar range as a long-term accumulation zone, even as prediction markets (for example: Polymarket / Kalshi) allow for a pullback to 48,000 dollars.

Outlook for the coming weeks — The short term will be driven, essentially, by three variables. First, the US labour market: this week's employment data, brought forward by the 4th of July holiday, appears to cement or defuse the expectation of a Fed rate hike, with the market attaching a low probability to a move as early as July. Second, the second-quarter earnings season, which will test whether profits — growing 25% in the S&P 500 — continue to justify multiples of 20-24 times; any disappointment among the hyperscalers, already pressured by cost inflation in memory chips and by 1.8 trillion dollars in off-balance-sheet commitments, will reactivate the defensive rotation. Third, geopolitics and currencies: a yen at a 40-year low with the risk of intervention, the fragility of the Gulf ceasefire and the European budgetary standoff all retain the potential for sudden episodes of risk aversion.

Against this backdrop, the current configuration of retail portfolios appears well designed: core exposure maintained but diversified, income as a cushion, and gold, long-dated Treasuries and cash as strategic reserves to capitalise on the summer volatility that, historically, July rarely forgives. Discipline — more than forecasting — will be the most valuable asset of the coming weeks.

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The information contained herein identifies the most purchased ETFs, in the reference period by Banco Carregosa clients, not considering any personal element of a specific potential investor. No elements were considered to assess the suitability of any investment or disinvestment to a specific person, therefore it should not constitute an investment recommendation. Potential investors are responsible for their investment decisions, and should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, tolerance and capacity to bear the risk of investing in the financial instruments in question. 

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